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Projections and Trends
The projections and trends analysis uses historical data on demographic, economic and fiscal indicators with an empirical framework to calculate three sets of growth projections to 2040, each based on different assumptions. The analysis also considers the key role of technology in affecting growth and state capacity and recognizes other key challenges such as environmental change, inequality and democracy, and various uncertainties. Not only does this analysis provide data-driven insights into the medium-term conditions of different countries and regions, but it also carries implications for the future of global economic order by way of governance and cooperation.
Scenarios of Global Economic Order
Future research will analyze these implications by exploring potential architectures of global economic order. While a multipolar world has emerged, the shape of global economic order within it is yet to be determined. The scenarios of global economic order will draw on the insights of the initial projections and trends to assess broader geopolitical dynamics and address their magnitude and inherent intricacies in more detail.