Strategic foresight can help address long-term uncertainties by offering insights into the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on national security. This analysis highlights the value of qualitative tools in exploring a variety of future scenarios related to breakthroughs in AI. This investigation examines how strategic foresight is changing in Canada and other Five Eyes (plus one) nations — the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands — using horizon scanning and scenario planning to improve security policies. Important observations centre on the dual nature of AI, exploring the difficulties presented by deepfake technology and cyberthreats while emphasizing the need for preventative regulatory actions to protect democratic institutions and national security. Various illustrative scenarios highlight the risks associated with unbridled AI capabilities, including the problem of incremental approaches, showcasing different degrees of AI integration for defence. Robust legislative frameworks and international cooperation are essential to control AI’s impact, and strategic foresight provides a critical instrument to navigate upcoming possibilities and challenges in defence and security.
