Artificial Intelligence and National Defence

In this paper, Alex Wilner and Ryan Atkinson argue that strategic foresight, the systematic study of the future, “imperfect as it is...is nonetheless an essential tool kit” for policy makers in identifying, anticipating and responding to future change and “can help address long-term uncertainties by offering insights into the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on national security.”

Their analysis highlights the value of qualitative tools through several illustrative scenarios related to breakthroughs in AI, focusing on AI-powered deepfakes, cybercrime and warfare. “Strategic foresight has shaped defence policies in the Five Eyes countries and the Netherlands, proactively managing future security challenges to enhance situational awareness and readiness by incorporating comprehensive scenario planning and trend analysis. These scenarios underscore the need for robust, adaptive defence strategies aligned with international collaboration to ensure the responsible use of AI.”

“The global movement to regulate AI gained momentum in Paris last month as Canada added its signature to the Council of Europe’s convention on AI. We now join other key players in the race to develop AI — the European Union, Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States — in reaching this important milestone.”

Robert Diab writes that the convention stands out among a series of recent initiatives at the global level to formulate an overarching framework for the oversight of AI in that it imposes binding obligations on its parties. But, Diab points out, “caving into pressure from industry, it imposes no clear obligation to regulate the private sector.” Does it, as some have commented, mark the collapse of global efforts to regulate AI safety? And now that Canada is a party to the convention, will it make a difference to Canadian law?

Apr. 1 – 8:00 a.m. EDT (UTC–04:00): On April 1 and 2, CIGI is hosting the Think7 (T7) Summit.

Over two days, the T7 Summit will bring together a diverse group of global experts, policy makers and thought leaders for strategic discussions that will inform policy recommendations for the G7. The in-person component of the meetings is by invitation only, but virtual attendance is open to all. Virtual attendees will have full access to all plenary sessions and can participate in Q&As and discussions.

Learn more about the T7’s work, themes and the latest summit agenda, and register to receive virtual connection details.

President Donald Trump has expressed his interest in taking over his closest neighbour, stating that “economic force alone would be enough to break Canada.” As Maya Povhe writes, “economic force” could come in a variety of forms, but “the role of the information economy should be a front-line consideration.”

In this opinion, Povhe presents a handful of examples where “modes of communication have been used in the past — independent of military invasion or economic force — in efforts to change territorial lines,” and proposes ways to fight back. “Amid the chaos — especially as we move into a federal election — Canadian media and politicians should be more intentional about creating spaces for optimism. Stories of innovation, collaboration and hope have exceptional power to reframe focus, spur ideas and build Canada’s sovereign, economic future.”

The Digital Policy Hub at CIGI is a collaborative space for emerging scholars and innovative thinkers from the social, natural and applied sciences. Here are the most recent working papers published by Hub fellows.

Xiao Han: “Black Myth, Digital Soft Power and Counter-National Narratives in China”

Maral Niazi: “How Do Current AI Regulations Shape the Global Governance Framework?”

Caleigh Wong: “Data Governance Avenues for Military Cultural Transformation”

Follow the links on the Hub webpage to learn more about the Hub scholars and their work.